FOUSER ROVERT J
In South Korea, as in other democracies, elections fall into two broad categories: those that reveal emerging trends and those that confirm trends from previous elections. The local elections for mayors, governors and local legislators held on June 3 fit the latter, but with one surprise.
Overall, the ruling Democratic Party of Korea performed well, despite the surprise loss of the mayoral election in Seoul. The ruling party gained seven mayors and governors, giving it 12 out of 16 nationwide. The Democratic Party performed especially well in legislative elections, granting it control of 11 out of 16 subnational legislatures and a majority of local legislatures.
Elections for vacancies in the National Assembly were held in 14 districts nationwide. The ruling party won nine seats, maintaining a clear majority of 161 out of 300 seats. Han Dong-hoon, a former leader of the People Power Party who supported the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk Yeol, won a seat in Busan as an independent. Cho Kuk, leader of the center-left Rebuilding Korea Party, came in third in a Gyeonggi Province race, forcing him to step down as leader of the minor party.
The results confirm two constants in South Korean politics. The first is regional voting patterns. This has been true for every election since democratization in 1987. The Democratic Party inherited former President Kim Dae-jung’s political base in the southwestern Honam region, while the People Power Party inherited the conservative base in the southeastern Yeongnam region. Other regions have flipped back and forth between the camps.
The ruling party’s overwhelming margins in Honam help offset the main opposition party’s advantage in the more populous Yeongnam region. In the recent election, the Democratic Party candidate for mayor of the new entity that will combine South Jeolla Province and Gwangju won 79 percent, leaving the People Power Party with only 12 percent. In Yeongnam, by contrast, the Democratic Party candidate for mayor of Busan won 50.5 percent to become the second candidate from the party elected to lead the city. The Democratic Party also won the mayoral election in Ulsan, but the People Power Party swept other races in the region.
The second constant is that the ruling party does well when local elections are held early in a new presidential term. Declining popularity and lame-duck status later in a presidential term, by contrast, give a boost to the opposition party.
Local elections, which began in 1995, have been held every four years since 1998. In elections that fell early in a presidential term — 1998, 2018, 2022, and 2026 — the ruling party did well. Elections in 2002, 2006, and 2010 all saw the ruling party fare poorly. The next elections are scheduled for June 2030, shortly after the next presidential election on March 27, 2030. History suggests that the party of the winner of the presidential election will do well.
The results also confirm the increasingly conservative leanings of younger male voters. The trend became notable in the 2022 presidential election and has continued to grow since.
According to exit polls for the Seoul mayoral election, an overwhelming 75 percent of men in their 20s and 67 percent of men in their 30s supported Oh Se-hoon, the People Power Party incumbent. By contrast, only 48 percent of men in their 40s and 37 percent of men in their 50s supported Oh.
Conservative leanings are weaker among younger women, with only 41 percent of women in their 20s and 54 percent of those in their 30s voting for Oh. Voting patterns for women in their 40s and 50s are similar to those of men. Women in their 60s gave Oh 64 percent of their votes, a larger share than the 57 percent he received from men in the same age group.
Voting patterns in the Seoul mayoral election underscore the growing generation gap that the populous, politically active demographic of people now in their 50s and 60s has trouble understanding. Like their liberal baby boomer counterparts in the US, they assume that youthful desire for change automatically translates into support for political stances that developed in their own youth.
The big surprise, of course, was Oh Se-hoon’s narrow victory. President Lee Jae Myung remains popular one year into his term, which suggests that Oh should have lost.
The victory marked Oh’s fifth since first winning in 2006 and his third in a row since winning a by-election in 2021. He is now term-limited, but most likely has his sights set on a presidential run in 2030. His victory amid heavy headwinds bodes well for his chances.
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Robert J. Fouser
Robert J. Fouser, a former associate professor of Korean language education at Seoul National University, writes on Korea from Providence, Rhode Island. He can be reached at robertjfouser@gmail.com. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. — Ed.
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