[ESPN insider] Mock Draft ver 8.0 by Chad Ford

[jongheuk]

Chad Ford 의 목드래프트 최신 버젼입니다. 이쯤 되면 스카우트들의 의견들도 대충 정리가 될 때죠. 브래들리 빌이 함께 워크아웃한 선수들, 심지어 스몰 포워드들까지도 눌러 버렸다더라, 존 헨슨의 점프력은 형편없는데 왜 그렇게 높은 곳에서 블락할 수 있는 걸까, 로이스 화이트는 글을 쓰고 읽는 것이 취미래, 이런 것들까지 모두가 공유할 때가 된 것이죠. 특히 이번 드래프트 직전에는 설린저에게 레드 플렉이 꽂히면서 주가가 폭락하는 참극이 벌어졌습니다. 

일일이 해석하지는 않겠습니다. 선수마다 한두 문장으로 되어 있어서 읽으시는데 큰 불편함이 없으실 겁니다. 

코멘트는 좀 하고 싶은데요, 

먼저 1번부터 6번까지는 거의 lock 입니다. 이 픽 순위 안에 포함된 선수가 더 아래로 떨어지는 일은 없을 겁니다. 한가지 변수라면 캐브스가 빌을 뽑지 않고 반즈를 뽑을 경우 드루먼드가 5번으로 올라가고 포틀랜드가 빌을 뽑을 것이라는 것 정도. 토마스 로빈슨의 주가가 올라가면서 그가 제2의 알 호포드가 될 것이라는 예상이 많은데요, 저도 파워 포워드 포지션에서 뛰는 호포드의 모습을 로빈슨에게서 볼 수 있을 것 같습니다. 빌은 어빙을 위한 최적의 파트너라는 생각이 들고, 반즈도 킹스에 가면 그간의 우려를 떨쳐낼 만큼 좋은 활약을 보일 수 있을 것 같습니다. 반즈에 대한 몇가지 오해가 있는데 일단 그는 볼호그가 아니고요, 이번 루키들중 가장 완성된 슈팅 매커니즘을 가지고 있으며, 또한 가장 리그 레벨에 알맞은 바디를 완성해 놓고 있고, 골밑 피니쉬 또한 매우 훌륭합니다. 그런데왜 그가 탑3 픽이 아니냐구요? 위닝 본능이 결여되어 있기 때문입니다. 프랜차이즈의 기둥이 되기 보다는 아주 좋은 퍼즐이 되기에 적합한 선수라는 느낌입니다. 팀의 2,3 옵션으로 이만한 선수는 없습니다. 

그리고 웨이터스의 7번픽. 포드는 웨이터스에게 약속을 주고 웨이터스로 하여금 다른 팀들과의 워크아웃은 물론 컴바인 참가까지 취소하게끔 만든 팀이 워리어스라는 일종의 확신을 가지고 이 이픽을 버젼이 바뀌는 와중에도 흔들림없이 lock 하고 있습니다. 그가 인사이더로부터 들은 정보라면 포드에게 크레딧을 줘야 겠죠. 정황상 워리어스가 아니면 포틀랜드밖에 없긴 합니다. 전 개인적으로 포틀랜드가 11번픽에서 웨이터스에게 언질을 주었을 가능성이 워리어스가 7픽에서 약속을 주었을 가능성보다 높다고 생각합니다. 웨이터스는 전형적인 테리 - 웨이드 형 가드입니다. 볼을 핸들링할 수 있으며 적당한 수준의 미드레인지 슈팅과 좋은 퍼스트 스텝을 가지고 있습니다. 다시 말하자면 리그에서 가장 흔하게 볼 수 있는 유형이며, 그 선수들중 누구도 웨이드와 같은 포텐셜을 터뜨리지 못한 유형이기도 합니다. 리그에서 쉽게 대체가 가능한 콤보 가드를 깊은 뎊스의 드래프트에서 7픽으로 뽑느다? 저는 좀 이상합니다. 

오스틴 리버스의 10번픽. 뉴올리언스가 오스틴 리버스를 10번픽에서 뽑는다면 에릭 고든을 장기 플랜에 포함시키지 않는다는 뜻이며, 바즈케즈에서 업그레이드시킨 어중간한 콤보 가드를 로스터에 추가시키겠다는 겁니다. 리버스가 10번픽에 뽑히면 선즈는 땡큐겠죠. 뽑을 수 없으니까요. 하지만 전 리버스가 로터리안으로 들어갔다는 루머가 사실로 판명되면 상당히 실망할 것 같습니다. 그보다 더 좋은 선수가 이번 드래프트에는 최소한 15명쯤 있습니다. 

제레미 램 11번픽. 웨슬리 매튜스의  계약은 앞으로 3년이 더 남아 있습니다. 램을 여기서 뽑으면 포인트가드는 FA 에서 찾아야 한다는 뜻이 됩니다. 레이먼드 팰튼의 공격형 포인트가드 타입은 실패했습니다. 정말 스티브 내쉬를 노리는 것일까요? 내쉬, 대런 윌리엄스, 안드레 밀러, 천시 빌럽스, 커크 하인릭등이 이번에 FA 로 나오는 포인트가드들입니다. 바툼 - 알드리지 코어와 함께 성장할 수 있는 젊은 포인트가드가 더 낫지 않을까요? 

테렌스 로스 15번픽. 테디어스 영과 너무 겹치지 않나요? 저라면 차라리 페리 존스 3세나 아넷 몰트리를 데려 오겠습니다. 몰트리는 생각보다 좋은 리바운더이고, 생각보다 훨씬 더 좋은 페인트존 피니셔입니다. 

재러드 설린저의 20번픽. 설린저가 20번 언저리로 떨어지는 것은 분명 비극입니다. 이 친구는 바로 지난해 드래프트에 나왔다면 카이리 어빙과 1픽을 두고 다퉜을 선수입니다. 1년만에 주가가 이렇게 급격하게 하락한 이유? "말" 과 "현실화되지 않은 것들에 대한 지나친 걱정" 때문입니다. 설린저가 보여준 숫자들을 믿지 않고, 설린저가 빅댄스에서 팀을 4강으로 이끈 "결과" 는 믿지 않고 단지 그가 below the rim player 라는 사실 하나만으로 잔뜩 겁을 집어 먹은 상태에서 등 부상 전력에 대한 과대 포장이 합쳐져 만들어낸 일종의 촌극입니다. 우리는 케빈 러브나 자크 랜돌프, 폴 밀샙처럼 키가 작고 점프가 높지 않은 느린 파워 포워드들이 어떻게 리그를 점령해 나갔는지 이미 잘 알고 있습니다. 최소한 칼 랜드리와 척 헤이즈라는 예도 있죠. 저는 설린저가 20번까지 밀린다면 그것은 설린저 개인에게는 불행이겠지만 그를 데려가는 팀에게는 일종의 축복이라고 확신합니다. 

드레이먼드 그린과 에반 푸르니에. 히트가 푸르니에를 뽑고 썬더가 그린을 뽑는 모습이 더 나이스해 보이지 않나요? 푸르니에는 골밑으로 저돌적으로 돌진해 들어갈 수 있는 선수이고 2,3번 모두 주전들에게 충분한 휴식 시간을 제공해 줄 수 있습니다. 그린은 do everything player 이자 아마 지금 드래프트 보드에 올라온 선수들중 가장 높은 BQ 를 가지고 있는 선수일텐데요, 듀란트의 출전 시간을 줄이면서 조금 더 효과적인 팀 바스켓을 가능하게끔 만들 수 있을 것 같아요. 

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It's crunch time. With the NBA draft less than 10 days away, the finishing touches of the process are playing out with individual workouts, team interviews and doctors combing over physicals combined with heated arguments in war rooms across the NBA.

While teams are getting closer to finalizing their draft boards, there's still time for things to change. Here's our best stab, after talking to numerous NBA team sources, about how the draft might play out June 28: 

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	New Orleans	Anthony Davis	Position: PF Height: 6-foot-11 Weight: 222 pounds Age: 19 School: Kentucky

Analysis: Davis is the clear No. 1 pick. The Hornets are turning down all trade offers for Davis and trying to figure out the best way to build around him. Look for them to seriously consider dealing the No. 10 pick if they can get a young veteran to play alongside Davis in return. This team has no intention of being bad for the next five seasons now that Davis is in place.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Charlotte	Thomas Robinson	Position: PF Height: 6-foot-9 Weight: 244 pounds Age: 21 School: Kansas

Analysis: The Bobcats continue to talk with teams about trading the No. 2 pick. But if they keep it, most of the signals coming out of the organization point to Robinson being the man. He is a super athletic, physical 4 who should be an instant upgrade over Tyrus Thomas and D.J. White.

I'm hearing Harrison Barnes may be in second place on their wish list. Apparently, MJ is a fan. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Bradley Beal are in the mix, too, though I'm told MKG didn't blow anyone away in his workout for the Bobcats on Monday and also hurt his back a little.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Washington	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Position: SF Height: 6-foot-8 Weight: 233 pounds Age: 18 School: Kentucky

Analysis: The Wizards are happy at No. 3 and I continue to hear it will come down to Kidd-Gilchrist or Beal. Barnes, I'm told, is also now in the picture. Andre Drummond is too, but he's much further down the list. So who gets the nod?

The Wizards really need shooting, which should give Beal or Barnes a leg up. But I continue to hear that Kidd-Gilchrist remains the favorite. It's very close.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Cleveland	Bradley Beal	Position: SG Height: 6-foot-5 Weight: 202 pounds Age: 18 School: Florida

Analysis: The Cavs had Beal and Barnes in for a head-to-head workout Saturday. While both played well, the word out of Cleveland is that Beal was a little better. That could seal the deal for Beal at No. 4 if he falls this far.

But remember that workouts are just one small part of a much bigger process. The Cavs have been very interested in Barnes for the past year and could decide they prefer his size.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Sacramento	Harrison Barnes	Position: SF Height: 6-foot-8 Weight: 228 pounds Age: 20 School: North Carolina

Analysis: Sacramento is another team that is seriously considering moving its pick if it can. GM Geoff Petrie is on the hot seat and the Kings are once again looking for a player who can come in and contribute immediately. If they can entice a team to give up a young veteran for the No. 5 pick, I think they do it. If they keep the pick, it's looking like they'll play it safe and grab Barnes. Drummond is in the mix too, but he's a much riskier proposition.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Portland (via Nets)	Andre Drummond	Position: C Height: 7-foot-0  Weight: 279 pounds Age: 18 School: UConn

Analysis: Blazers GM Neil Olshey is a risk-taker. He also knows he has some time to rebuild this team. So, unlike Petrie, Olshey has the capital right now to take a risk or two in the draft.

It may come down to a three-way choice (assuming the top five are off the board) between Drummond, Damian Lillard and Dion Waiters. I hear the Blazers like all three, but Drummond clearly has the biggest upside of the group. He also comes with the biggest question marks.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Golden State	Dion Waiters	Position: SG Height: 6-foot-4 Weight: 221 pounds Age: 20 School: Syracuse

Analysis: We've tried a number of players in this spot and none of them have stuck. Perry Jones really struggled during a workout with the Warriors. Terrence Jones didn't wow them in workouts. And news of Jared Sullinger's back issues have GMs in the lottery running scared.

Could the Warriors turn to Waiters? He would bring a lot of what Monta Ellis brought to the table at a much cheaper price. If the team believes Klay Thompson can slide over to the 3, or if it just wants to fill out a three-guard rotation, Waiters could be the guy.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Toronto	Damian Lillard	Position: PG Height: 6-foot-3 Weight: 189 pounds Age: 21 School: Weber State

Analysis: The Raptors were high on Waiters early, but his stock has risen so rapidly that he could very well be off the board when they pick. If that's the case, Lillard may be the next best thing to Waiters as a dynamic backcourt scorer, something the team has lacked.

The Raptors are also open to trading their pick for a veteran wing who could add stability to their roster. If they keep the pick, Jeremy Lamb and Austin Rivers are also in the mix here.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Detroit	John Henson	Position: PF Height: 6-foot-10 Weight: 216 pounds Age: 21 School: North Carolina

Analysis: Greg Monroe has been a revelation in the middle for the Pistons, but they really need to pair him alongside an athletic shot-blocker. Although Henson is painfully thin, he rebounds, blocks shots and defends multiple positions.

It wouldn't be a perfect solution for Detroit, but the Pistons don't have a lot of other options here unless they want to reach a bit for Meyers Leonard, who might be worth it after his stellar showing at the draft combine.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	New Orleans (via Wolves)	Austin Rivers	Position: SG Height: 6-foot-5 Weight: 203 pounds Age: 19 School: Duke

Analysis: We've had Sullinger here the past few weeks. But just as he was working out in New Orleans, NBA team doctors were reviewing the physicals from the draft combine. As we reported on Monday, Sullinger's physical left a number of team docs skittish.

If Sullinger isn't the guy, there is no obvious direction for the Hornets to go next. You could make the case for a dozen players. So why Rivers? He checks off a lot of boxes (perimeter scorer, shooter, star quality) that the Hornets are looking for and gives them some insurance should Eric Gordon get too expensive as a restricted free agent this summer.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Portland	Jeremy Lamb	Position: SG Height: 6-foot-5 Weight: 179 pounds Age: 20 School: UConn

Analysis: If the Blazers get Drummond at No. 6, they can turn their attention to their needs in the backcourt. While a point guard might be ideal, with Lillard off the board, I think they go after a 2-guard. Lamb has great length for his position, is a smooth athlete and would give Portland some scoring in the backcourt.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Milwaukee	Meyers Leonard	Position: C Height: 7-foot-1 Weight: 250 pounds Age: 20 School: Illinois

Analysis: The Bucks gambled a few years ago on Brandon Jennings and it paid off big time. At this point in the draft, Leonard is risky but could have huge upside. The Bucks really need a center after sending Andrew Bogut to the Warriors at the trade deadline. Leonard is a work in progress but has the size and athletic ability to become a dominant big man down the road.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Phoenix	Terrence Ross	Position: SG Height: 6-foot-7 Weight: 197 pounds Age: 21 School: Washington

Analysis: We've had both Waiters and Rivers associated with this pick in the past. However, if both players are off the board, Ross could be the guy.

He's big, he's super athletic and he can really shoot. The Suns desperately need help in their backcourt, and Ross could be a very solid addition.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Houston	Tyler Zeller	Position: C Height: 7-foot-0 Weight: 247 pounds Age: 22 School: North Carolina

Analysis: The Rockets' biggest need is in the middle, and Zeller should be a solid option. Scouts don't think Zeller is going to be an All-Star someday, but he's big, runs the floor very well and has a great touch around the basket. Leonard has passed him on our board, but Zeller should ultimately land somewhere in Picks 8-14.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Philadelphia	Terrence Jones	Position: PF Height: 6-foot-10 Weight: 252 pounds Age: 20 School: Kentucky

Analysis: The Sixers might have a tough choice here between Jones, Sullinger and Arnett Moultrie. They need size, but also shooting. Jones may be the compromise. He measured out very well for a power forward at the combine, has an NBA body and proved to be a solid rebounder and shot-blocker in college. He has tremendous upside if he puts his heart into it.

Sullinger, meanwhile, would give the Sixers the starting-caliber replacement for Elton Brand if he can stay healthy, while Moultrie is a long, bouncy, athletic big man who could stretch the floor.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Houston (via Knicks)	Arnett Moultrie	Position: PF Height: 6-foot-11 Weight: 223 pounds Age: 21 School: Mississippi State

Analysis: Moultrie can stretch the floor and really rebound. With the Rockets in desperate need of size, pairing Moultrie with Zeller could give them a good mix of bigs.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Dallas	Kendall Marshall	Position: PG Height: 6-foot-4 Weight: 198 pounds Age: 20 School: North Carolina

Analysis: With Jason Kidd 39 years old and a free agent, and Rodrigue Beaubois more of a combo guard, Marshall would offer much of what Kidd brings to the table -- incredible court vision and size -- right away. Marshall is not a great athlete or a great shooter, but he could keep Dirk & Co. happy.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Wolves (via Jazz)	Fab Melo	Position: C Height: 7-foot Weight: 255 pounds Age: 22 School: Syracuse

Analysis: The Wolves are praying that one of the wings, such as Ross or Rivers, slides to them here. But if they don't, the Wolves may choose to go big with Melo. Nikola Pekovic was a revelation this season, but after that the cupboard is pretty bare. Darko Milicic has one more year on his deal, but he's not a long-term answer in Minnesota.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Orlando	Perry Jones III	Position: PF Height: 6-foot-11 Weight: 234 pounds Age: 20 School: Baylor

Analysis: This is a long way for Jones to slip in the draft. Many believe he's a top-5 talent, but no one knows what position he'll play in the pros; his situation reminds me a lot of the one Josh Smith was in a few years ago. Jones may find a home in the lottery, but if he doesn't he could slide this far. Given Jones' raw talent, he's definitely worth the risk at this point.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Denver	Jared Sullinger	Position: PF Height: 6-foot-9 Weight: 268 pounds Age: 20 School: Ohio State

Analysis: A number of GMs are legitimately concerned with what their doctors found concerning Sullinger's back. They claim it's much more serious than what Sullinger's camp is saying. We will continue to try to get a handle on this situation in the next few days.

Still, there will be a certain spot in the draft where Sullinger's reward outweighs the risk. I'm not totally sure this is it, but the Nuggets need a 4 who can bang down low, so this might be a win-win for Sullinger and Denver.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Boston	Andrew Nicholson	Position: PF Height: 6-foot-10 Weight: 234 pounds Age: 22 School: St. Bonaventure

Analysis: Nicholson is another draft sleeper who may really rise with workouts. He's a big stretch 4 who has drawn some comparisons to David West. He would be another welcome addition to the Celtics' summer makeover.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Boston (via Clippers)	Moe Harkless	Position: SF Height: 6-foot-9 Weight: 207 pounds Age: 19 School: St. John's

Analysis: The Celtics get a pretty safe pick with Nicholson at No. 21 and then roll the dice a bit with Harkless at No. 22. He's long and athletic and can put the ball on the floor and get to the basket. If the team is going to start rebuilding, it'll need to nail a few of these late picks like it did with Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Atlanta	Royce White	Position: SF Height: 6-foot-8 Weight: 261 pounds Age: 21 School: Iowa State

Analysis: As long as coach Larry Drew can buy into what White is and how to play him, he could be a steal at this point in the draft. The Hawks don't really have a primary ball handler anyway, which may make White a great choice if he's allowed to play his game.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Cavs (via Lakers)	Quincy Miller	Position: SF Height: 6-foot-10 Weight: 219 pounds Age: 19 School: Baylor

Analysis: If the Cavs add Beal, they could try to swing for the fences with Miller. There are a lot of concerns about his knee and what position he'll play in the NBA. But his upside is so high that it might be worth taking a gamble this low in the first round. There's very little risk and a lot of potential reward here.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Memphis	Tony Wroten Jr.	Position: PG Height: 6-foot-6 Weight: 203 pounds Age: 18 School: Washington

Analysis: The Grizzlies don't have a ton of talent behind Mike Conley, and Wroten is definitely worth the risk at this point in the draft. He is the most spectacular passer in the draft and has great size and athleticism. He just needs to fix that broken shot of his.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Indiana	Marquis Teague	Position: PG Height: 6-foot-2 Weight: 180 pounds Age: 19 School: Kentucky

Analysis: Teague would've been a top-10 pick in 2013 had he decided to stay in school. Instead, he followed the rest of Kentucky's stars into the draft. He could go as high as the mid-first round and I doubt he slips past the Pacers here. Adding Teague would allow Indiana to use Darren Collison as trade bait this summer.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Miami	Draymond Green	Position: SF Height: 6-foot-8 Weight: 236 pounds Age: 22 School: Michigan State

Analysis: The Heat need players with experience who excel in bringing out the best in their teammates. Green can be a point-forward type who does a little of everything. Think of him as a better-passing Udonis Haslem.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Oklahoma City	Evan Fournier	Position: SG Height: 6-foot-7 Weight: 206 pounds Age: 19 Country: France

Analysis: Fournier is the type of player that the Thunder can easily stash for a year or two in Europe. Or, given the high level he has played at in France, he might be able to come in and get minutes for them right away -- especially if the Thunder decide they can't afford to re-sign James Harden this summer.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Chicago	John Jenkins	Position: SG Height: 6-foot-4 Weight: 212 pounds Age: 21 School: Vanderbilt

Analysis: The Bulls need a shooter, and Jenkins has one of the best strokes in the draft. His super-quick release and ability to finish at the basket make him an interesting prospect here.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	VITALS
	Golden State (via Spurs)	Jeff Taylor	Position: SF Height: 6-foot-7 Weight: 212 pounds Age: 23 School: Vanderbilt

Analysis: The Warriors really need some help at the 3 and at this point Taylor is a safe bet. He's a terrific defender who can guard multiple positions, and he has become an adequate shooter off the catch.

[Placebo effect]

물론 당일이 되어봐야 알수있겠지만 오스틴리버스와 웨이터스가 10픽안으로 거론되는게 이해가 안갑니다. 말씀하셨듯 로터리로 저 두선수보다 더나은 선수를 뽑을 기회가 있슴에도 불구하고 말이죠. 만약 저리된다면 1라 후반피카진팀들이 대박터지는거죠. 특히 보스턴에 하클리스!

[페니매니아]

-그래야 Suns가 안 뽑으니까요ㅠ 제발 앞에서 뽑아주세요...

[멋찐켄신]

저기 jong님도 그렇지만 왜 피닉스가 뽑으려고 하는거죠?@@ 다 반대하는데...현지도 반대분위기겠죠?

[Dynamic Mavs]

거의 댈러스 픽은 켄달마샬이 유력해지는 가운데, 테렌스 존스, 페리존스, 퀸시 밀러, 메이어스 레오나드도 탐내고 있다는군요. 저도 보스턴이 부럽네요

[Dirk Nowitzki[Deutschland]]

댈러스가 켄달 마샬을 뽑는다면 데론 가능성은 낮아진 거라고 판단하는 게 나아보입니다.