Citi: Expanded World Cup format could have more severe impact on Macau GGR through June and July than historically
by Ben Blaschke
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The new expanded format of this year’s World Cup could result in an even greater negative impact on Macau GGR than has been historically seen, although the city should enjoy a strong post-tournament recovery, according to commentary from investment bank Citigroup.
In a note, Citi analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau said they expect a 10% year-on-year decline in GGR in June and a 5% decline in July before a “swift recovery driven by a strong post-tournament event calendar.”
The World Cup runs from 11 June to 19 July.
Citi pointed to historical analysis which shows that major soccer tournaments divert the gaming budgets of Macau players. As such, this year’s expanded format – with 16 more teams competing and a total of 104 matches, up from 64 at the 2018 World Cup – could see a more severe impact.
The analysis shows that the most recent major football tournament, Euro 2024, had a significant impact on Macau GGR, which hit a trough of MOP$514 million (US$63.7 million) per day – 17% lower than the 2024 daily GGR average of MOP$620 million (US$76.8 million). Macau GGR took similar dives during both the FIFA World Cup in 2018 and UEFA Euro 2016, they added. Events held during the pandemic years are not seen as viable comparisons.
Despite the temporary slowdown, Choi and Chau said they remain bullish on Macau and see potential opportunity to acquire gaming stocks during the World Cup when there could be share price weakness.
On the pathway ahead, they added, “We anticipate a swift GGR recovery immediately after the tournament, in mid-July, led by a busy calendar of star- studded concerts and events – including renowned K-pop groups Babymonster, TWS and Enhypen, Taiwanese singer Zhao Chuan, and the NBA China Games featuring the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks.
“This strong non-gaming lineup should attract visitors and stimulate spending, ensuring a return to positive GGR growth for the rest of the year.”