(Hot news Today Wednesday 12 April 2017)
Deployment of US warship shows Trump has few options
An F/A-18C Hornet being launched from the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson in the South China Sea
on Saturday. US President Donald Trump has diverted the Carl Vinson to the waters off
the Korean Peninsula. Photo: REUtERS
WASHINGTON — American President Donald Trump’s deployment of an aircraft carrier to the waters off the Korean Peninsula has raised tensions across East Asia. But the show of force conceals a lack of better options for dealing with the provocations of the rogue government in North Korea.
China’s President, Mr Xi Jinping, did not make any public commitment to tighten the pressure on North Korea during his meeting in Palm Beach, Florida, last week with Mr Trump. Even privately, officials said, he was circumspect. And an attack on North Korea carries far greater risk than the missile strike Mr Trump ordered last week to punish President Bashar Assad of Syria for his deadly chemical weapons attack.
That leaves the White House in a bind on a security issue that Mr Trump has described as the most pressing of his presidency. Mr Trump warned before the meeting with Mr Xi that the United States would act alone against North Korea if China did not join his pressure campaign.
A senior administration official expressed hope that the productive tone of the meeting would eventually lead to further Chinese actions.
But Mr Trump’s missile strike, which came while he and Mr Xi were having dinner, could play both ways: Administration officials said it would convince the Chinese leader of Mr Trump’s resolve, while some experts said it would reinforce fears in Beijing that he is erratic and unpredictable.
Flexing America’s military muscle alone is not likely to deter North Korea’s dictator, Mr Kim Jong-un, from testing nuclear bombs and ballistic missiles. Former president Barack Obama ordered the aircraft carrier USS George Washington into the Yellow Sea twice to intimidate Mr Kim’s father, Kim Jong-il, without persuading him to change his behaviour.
“This is deja vu all over again,” said Mr Jeffrey Bader, who advised Mr Obama on China. “They’ve signalled a new approach, but they’re discovering that the new approaches are not particularly attractive.”
The White House is likely to pursue secondary sanctions, which target Chinese firms and banks that help North Korea earn foreign currency and finance its weapons programmes. The question is whether the Chinese government will cooperate with the effort, and if it does not, whether Mr Trump will impose the sanctions unilaterally, even at the risk of rupturing the relationship between Washington and Beijing.
Yesterday evening, the American leader tweeted that: “I explained to the President of China that a trade deal with the US will be far better for them if they solve the North Korean problem!”.
Analysts and officials in South Korea fear that a pre-emptive military attack against North Korea — even one limited to taking out nuclear and missile bases — could set off a catastrophic retaliation and a fullscale war. Seoul lies within range of North Korean artillery and rockets amassed along the border.
Military planners in the Pentagon share those fears. “While the military is very focused on maintaining a strong deterrence posture on the peninsula, it is acutely aware of the dangers of escalation,” said Mr Derek Chollet, a former assistant defence secretary for international security affairs.
Some US analysts argue that Mr Trump’s unpredictability could give him leverage with the Chinese. Mr Michael Green, an Asia adviser to President George W Bush, recalled negotiating with China and North Korea when Mr Bush began his invasion of Iraq in 2003. The Chinese noticeably shifted their tone, he said, and put more pressure on the North Koreans.
“Everybody prices in North Korean unpredictability,” said Mr Victor Cha, who also worked on Asia during the Bush administration.
“Most of the other players price in US predictability and reliability. The only time I’ve ever seen the Chinese worried is when they’re not sure what the US is going to do.” THE NEW YORK TIMES